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Good morning and welcome to US Election Countdown.
It’s presidential debate night in the US — be sure to check out FT.com this evening for our live coverage! In the meantime, let’s talk about:
What to expect in tonight’s debate
A defence executive’s Trump troubles
Freight companies’ tariff warnings
Get the popcorn ready — tonight marks Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s first face-to-face meeting in four years.
The two will square off in Atlanta, Georgia, at 9pm ET in a debate hosted by CNN. Here are five flashpoints to look out for [free to read].
1. Fitness for office
With just two advertisem*nt breaks and no prepared materials allowed, we’ll get the chance to assess the candidates’ stamina. At 81, Biden’s been plagued by questions about his physical and mental fitness — and Trump, 78, is not much younger.
Their first go-round in 2020 was notoriously unruly. Trump constantly interrupted his opponent (which ultimately hurt the then-president) and caused Biden to snap: “Will you shut up, man?”
2. Trump’s felony conviction
Biden has been hesitant to hit Trump on his long list of legal issues, including his recent New York conviction on 34 criminal counts. However, Democrats have been calling Trump a “convicted felon” more frequently.
Going after Trump’s legal dramas poses some risk to Biden — his family is still reeling from the recent conviction of his son, Hunter Biden, for possessing a gun illegally.
3. The fate of US democracy
Biden has stressed that this election poses an existential threat to US democracy. He is likely to remind viewers that Trump refused to concede defeat in 2020 — and of the ensuing insurrection.
Moderators could create a key moment by asking both men whether they’d accept the 2024 election results.
4. The economy
Inflation will be a big topic — expect Trump to blame higher living costs on Biden.
The president will probably point to a strong labour market and record-high stock prices during his term.
5. Immigration, war and abortion
Trump has battered Biden over a surge in immigration across the US-Mexico border and will probably be aggressive on this front tonight.
He’s also likely to hit the Democrat over the wars in Ukraine and Gaza — painting the president as a warmonger and himself as peacemaker. Biden will have to respond carefully so he doesn’t deepen Democratic divisions over his support for Israel in its war against Hamas.
Biden, meanwhile, can take aim at Trump over abortion, since the latter likes to take credit for the Supreme Court overturning Roe vs Wade.
Campaign clips: the latest election headlines
The candidates’ age and fitness for office loom over the debate and the election more broadly. Here’s what would happen if Biden or Trump were to drop out — or die. [Free to read]
The number of people crossing the border has plummeted since Biden’s immigration crackdown. (Politico)
The US Supreme Court appears poised to authorise emergency abortions in Idaho, according to an apparent draft opinion that was erroneously published.
Progressive Democrats suffered a significant loss in a New York primary inflamed by tensions over the war in Gaza.
Trump’s New York gag order was partly lifted ahead of the debate.
Explore the evolution of Biden’s debate style over his long political career. (NYT)
Behind the scenes
Historically, Republican administrations have been hawkish on defence spending, which is good for industry, but I recently sat down with a defence industry executive who is worried about a possible Trump administration — particularly as it pertains to corporate diversity and inclusion.
“We’ve had a number of conversations with Trump transition officials that have been moderately frightening,” the executive said.
Since the entire defence business rests on Pentagon contracts, the company worries that a Trump-led government could try to push culture war issues during procurement. With D&I, “are they going to punish companies like us [where] . . . creating an environment where all our employees [are] welcomed is important?”
Executives at this company have had discussions with those in Trump’s orbit who have told them:
“Hey, we looked at your board — there’s more Democrats than Republicans.” That stuff’s terrifying. That’s not how this country should work.
But despite this executive’s concerns, the person maintained that “there’s such a broad range of possibilities that we’re actually not doing any scenario planning”. And, ultimately, “I think our bias would be for split government”, the executive added.
Datapoint
US protectionism is in the air, and freight executives are not happy about it.
Industry leaders have said that Biden’s sweeping new tariffs on Chinese imports — and those proposed by Trump — would increase inflation and harm the US freight sector. They’ve warned that the candidates’ policies would be a burden on consumers and businesses.
Their anxiety comes after the Cass freight shipments index, which measures North American shipments, fell to an almost four-year low last month. The index measuring total dollars spent on freight transportation has dropped almost 30 per cent since its August 2022 peak.
“We’re in what we in the industry call a ‘freight recession’,” Dave Broering, president of Integrated Logistics, told the FT’s Martha Muir. While a lot of money is being thrown at chip production, there’s a slump in other US manufacturing sectors.
Trump’s and Biden’s promises to protect US manufacturing from competition abroad are a significant part of their pitches to blue-collar workers in swing states such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
Unemployment in the transportation and warehousing sector rose to 5.5 per cent in May from 4.7 per cent in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Viewpoints
Katy Waldman analyses the incoherence of both Trump and Biden — “two singularly inarticulate politicians” —and what it tells us about their chances tonight. (The New Yorker)
Biden should be focusing more on the threat Trump poses to the economy — such as his proposed policies bringing a recession by the middle of next year — and less on what he could do to democracy, writes Edward Luce.
Martin Wolf says business leaders are wrong to dismiss fears of a Trump return to the White House.
